If anyone would have said South Africa would win hands down against Ireland, no one would have been surprised. Even the margin of victory would not have come as a surprise. On the contrary, it is just 201 runs is a surprise especially after the initial collapse that Ireland had.
Ireland had played two games before this and had chased in both the games and that too successfully. One of them was a 300+ score against West Indies. Ireland also has the history of chasing 300+ scores three times in their brief history of world cup, the most by any team. With all these information if we believed that Ireland would have been able to chase down 412 against South Africa, we would have been far from reality.
Whenever we talk of records, just talking about it objectively does not help. The three oppositions against whom Ireland had chased 300+ was Netherlands, England and West Indies. Chasing against Netherlands would not have been a big deal, Ireland has always had that edge over the fellow associates, obviously not that they have always won against them. Coming to the chase against England, it was largely because of one man's belligerence. Kevin O'Brien had to create a record of the fastest century in the world cup history to achieve this. The batting line up was pretty much the same even in that game but Ireland were 111/5 when Kevin O'Brien started the counter charge. In the same world cup just before that match, the same Ireland team had lost to Bangladesh chasing a modest 206. After that match, there were two matches against West Indies and South Africa, where they could not chase a 270+ target. So, the Irish team lacked consistency and that was because they lacked experience.
Coming to this world cup, chase against West Indies was executed very well. The bowling attack was also not bad. May be the West Indian bowling attack lacked consistency, but it did not lack the pace and bounce that could trouble the Irish batsmen, but they did negotiate it well and three of the top four batsmen, ensured that their chase was easy. In the very next match, target was reduced by 30 runs and the pace and accuracy would have also reduced considerably against UAE, but they struggled to go past the line, it is a different story that they eventually did. A team that chases 305 against a West Indian attack is expected to chase 279 against UAE with ease. But that was not the case. Again we can attribute it to lack of consistency.
Against a target of 400+, even the West Indies batting line up, that boasts of the likes of Gayle, Samuels, Simmons, etc. wilted. The attack that they faced was no different from what Ireland had to face. Considering that West Indies were coming from a batting performance that broke several records, pundits would have given them a chance to get to that target. But that did not happen. Obviously it does not mean that Ireland could not do that but it looked unlikely. South Africa were playing their fourth game, had posted two 400+ scores in a row, their bowling had decimated the batting line up that had scored 372 in their previous match, psychologically South Africa did have an upper hand. To add to this, they have two bowlers in their attack who are in the top 4 rankings. All that I am trying to imply is that certain statistics do not project the practical aspect of the game.
But in all the three games in this world cup so far, Ireland had been pretty consistent in one thing - their death bowling. In the batting powerplay which had been always from 35.1-40.0, they have conceded 43, 47 and 69 against West Indies, UAE and South Africa respectively, which means a minimum RR of 8.6. Then in the final 10 overs the numbers are even bad. It is 124, 100 and 131. If Ireland continues to leak so much runs in the last 15 overs, then they will always be chasing big target. So they are not left with any choice but to chase only big target. So, another way to look at the above record is that they concede too many runs too often and hence probability of chasing big targets increases.
Sometimes, when you have to chase such a big target, the teams should be realistic. I am not saying that they have to go with the mindset that they will not be able to chase it but they will have to go out with the mindset of finishing closer to the target. The loss to South Africa was not going to hurt them, but the margin of defeat would. They should have chased the target in phases and all the top order batsmen should have ensured that. They should have put a price on their wicket and should not have lost it. The tournament has enough examples to suggest that if you have wickets in hand, it is easy to propel your score, of course that necessarily may not work in a chase as in does in batting first. But wickets in hand does add pressure on the team bowling. The margin of defeat has put Ireland in a vulnerable position now. Thanks to Andy Balbirnie and Kevin O'Brien, else the equation could have been even worse. What I am trying say is that the top order batsmen should have shown the same resolve that these two did. Their resolve took the match to the 45th over, and also allowed Dockrell and Sorensen to play with some freedom to add to their total.
As far as South Africa is concerned, they seem to have recovered from their loss against India, but both the games that they have won post that is by batting first. How much confident they would be chasing is not clear, especially if it is a big score. Currently they have two pain points to address. One Quinton de Kock's failure so far. Roussouw has shown his form in the two chances that he got. He could be an option to open the innings. Dropping de Kock means that AB will have to keep wickets. How comfortable AB is in doing that will be a question. With the form the other batsmen are in and de Kock being a wicket-keeper, he cannot be considered a liability for sure. The other pain point is the number 7 slot. This was not actually tested today but if definitely a weak link. Parnell was put in for Behardien in the match against India and it did not succeed. Behardien cannot be expected to be the fifth bowler but when Duminy is in that problem is taken care partially. Not a major problem at this point of time, but certainly to look at before the knock outs.
Ireland face Zimbabwe, India and Pakistan in their last half. They have to win two of them to be in the contention for the knockouts. South Africa on the other hand are in course to finish in top two.
Ireland had played two games before this and had chased in both the games and that too successfully. One of them was a 300+ score against West Indies. Ireland also has the history of chasing 300+ scores three times in their brief history of world cup, the most by any team. With all these information if we believed that Ireland would have been able to chase down 412 against South Africa, we would have been far from reality.
Whenever we talk of records, just talking about it objectively does not help. The three oppositions against whom Ireland had chased 300+ was Netherlands, England and West Indies. Chasing against Netherlands would not have been a big deal, Ireland has always had that edge over the fellow associates, obviously not that they have always won against them. Coming to the chase against England, it was largely because of one man's belligerence. Kevin O'Brien had to create a record of the fastest century in the world cup history to achieve this. The batting line up was pretty much the same even in that game but Ireland were 111/5 when Kevin O'Brien started the counter charge. In the same world cup just before that match, the same Ireland team had lost to Bangladesh chasing a modest 206. After that match, there were two matches against West Indies and South Africa, where they could not chase a 270+ target. So, the Irish team lacked consistency and that was because they lacked experience.
Coming to this world cup, chase against West Indies was executed very well. The bowling attack was also not bad. May be the West Indian bowling attack lacked consistency, but it did not lack the pace and bounce that could trouble the Irish batsmen, but they did negotiate it well and three of the top four batsmen, ensured that their chase was easy. In the very next match, target was reduced by 30 runs and the pace and accuracy would have also reduced considerably against UAE, but they struggled to go past the line, it is a different story that they eventually did. A team that chases 305 against a West Indian attack is expected to chase 279 against UAE with ease. But that was not the case. Again we can attribute it to lack of consistency.
Against a target of 400+, even the West Indies batting line up, that boasts of the likes of Gayle, Samuels, Simmons, etc. wilted. The attack that they faced was no different from what Ireland had to face. Considering that West Indies were coming from a batting performance that broke several records, pundits would have given them a chance to get to that target. But that did not happen. Obviously it does not mean that Ireland could not do that but it looked unlikely. South Africa were playing their fourth game, had posted two 400+ scores in a row, their bowling had decimated the batting line up that had scored 372 in their previous match, psychologically South Africa did have an upper hand. To add to this, they have two bowlers in their attack who are in the top 4 rankings. All that I am trying to imply is that certain statistics do not project the practical aspect of the game.
But in all the three games in this world cup so far, Ireland had been pretty consistent in one thing - their death bowling. In the batting powerplay which had been always from 35.1-40.0, they have conceded 43, 47 and 69 against West Indies, UAE and South Africa respectively, which means a minimum RR of 8.6. Then in the final 10 overs the numbers are even bad. It is 124, 100 and 131. If Ireland continues to leak so much runs in the last 15 overs, then they will always be chasing big target. So they are not left with any choice but to chase only big target. So, another way to look at the above record is that they concede too many runs too often and hence probability of chasing big targets increases.
Sometimes, when you have to chase such a big target, the teams should be realistic. I am not saying that they have to go with the mindset that they will not be able to chase it but they will have to go out with the mindset of finishing closer to the target. The loss to South Africa was not going to hurt them, but the margin of defeat would. They should have chased the target in phases and all the top order batsmen should have ensured that. They should have put a price on their wicket and should not have lost it. The tournament has enough examples to suggest that if you have wickets in hand, it is easy to propel your score, of course that necessarily may not work in a chase as in does in batting first. But wickets in hand does add pressure on the team bowling. The margin of defeat has put Ireland in a vulnerable position now. Thanks to Andy Balbirnie and Kevin O'Brien, else the equation could have been even worse. What I am trying say is that the top order batsmen should have shown the same resolve that these two did. Their resolve took the match to the 45th over, and also allowed Dockrell and Sorensen to play with some freedom to add to their total.
As far as South Africa is concerned, they seem to have recovered from their loss against India, but both the games that they have won post that is by batting first. How much confident they would be chasing is not clear, especially if it is a big score. Currently they have two pain points to address. One Quinton de Kock's failure so far. Roussouw has shown his form in the two chances that he got. He could be an option to open the innings. Dropping de Kock means that AB will have to keep wickets. How comfortable AB is in doing that will be a question. With the form the other batsmen are in and de Kock being a wicket-keeper, he cannot be considered a liability for sure. The other pain point is the number 7 slot. This was not actually tested today but if definitely a weak link. Parnell was put in for Behardien in the match against India and it did not succeed. Behardien cannot be expected to be the fifth bowler but when Duminy is in that problem is taken care partially. Not a major problem at this point of time, but certainly to look at before the knock outs.
Ireland face Zimbabwe, India and Pakistan in their last half. They have to win two of them to be in the contention for the knockouts. South Africa on the other hand are in course to finish in top two.
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