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| *Image: Courtesy Star Sports |
Right from their first match, Pakistan team are on their back foot. Since then they are only playing the catch up game. After losing the first two games in the tournament, every match has become a do or die affair for them. Thus, their Saturday (March 7) match against South Africa will also be no different.
In the pool table, after playing 4 matches, currently they are tied at 4 points with West Indies and Ireland. Ireland have played one game less than them and West Indies have played one game more. On the NRR front, Ireland are far behind Pakistan and because of West Indies' loss against India, they are marginally behind Pakistan. So that leaves Pakistan in the third position. In case Pakistan loses, there is a chance that it may move one place down but it will still be above Ireland on the NRR basis. Saturday also features match between Ireland and Zimbabwe. In case Ireland wins that game, then Pakistan will move further down. In case Zimbabwe wins that encounter against Ireland, then Zimbabwe will have 4 points and since there is only marginal difference in the NRR between them, Zimbabwe may overtake Pakistan.
So, if Pakistan has to safely remain in the contention for the quarter finals, irrespective of the result of the other match, it will have to win against South Africa. Unless, the margin of win is huge, South Africa will still continue to be in the second position. But from Pakistan's point of view, a win is more important than the margin of victory. South Africa can afford to lose, but they will not be thinking of anything less than a win.
So, what all they have to overcome if they have to win the Saturday match?
South Africa, after their loss against India have scored two 400+ scores back to back. Of course, the opposition were West Indies and Ireland. Pakistan's bowling attack is well oiled for them to concede a 400+ score. But these scores by South Africa mean that their batsmen are in form. Eden Park is relatively smaller than SCG and Manuka Oval, where South Africa scored those big scores. So, Pakistani bowling which is the only saving grace for them in the tournament have to be cautious about that. One comforting factor for Pakistan would be the fact that the last match that was played in Eden Park, Australia v New Zealand, was dominated by bowlers. But at the same time, if Pakistan bowlers can exploit the conditions, the South African bowlers are also very much cable of doing the same. So, on that front both the teams even out.
The two matches that Pakistan have won are the ones where they have batted first and the other two where they lost, they chased. So, if Pakistan wins the toss, they should bat first in this game as well. This will negate the South Africans from scoring big and Pakistan will avoid the scoreboard pressure. This also coincides with the fact that the only match that South Africa has lost is while chasing. Now the question is if Pakistan can post a total that they can defend against South Africa. Against Zimbabwe, they could post only 235. This South African attack is much better than Zimbabwe's. With the current form that South African batting is in, what will be the score that South Africa will be comfortable chasing is difficult to guess. I am pretty sure that given a choice, even South Africa will like to bat first.
One more factor that would come to play for whichever team chooses to bat first would be the initial movement that the bowlers would get. We know what Tim Southee did to Australia here on this ground. If we consider this factor, then Pakistan is on a shaky ground. Whether it is batting first or chasing, their highest opening partnership in tournament has been just 11 runs. For all we know, the opening combination could be changed as Nasir Jamshed has failed miserably. They can bring in either Younis Khan or Sarfaraz Ahmed for Nasir. Sarfaraz has not played a single match in the world cup so far and Younis's highest score in this tournament is 6. But the question still remains, who will open with Ahmed Shehzad? Their middle order is also as brittle as their openers. All of them scored in the game against UAE, but this time it is South Africa. To add to their woes, Harris Sohail is nursing injury. Pakistan's middle order heavily revolves around their skipper Misbah-ul-Haq. When chips are down, he is capable of dropping anchor, but that most of the times slows the scoring rate.
Now, if we consider that South Africa bats first and Pakistan bowlers are able to make use of the conditions to rattle the top order, even then South Africa's middle order is very robust. They were in the similar situation against Zimbabwe and we know finally what their score was. To South Africa's advantage, JP Duminy is fit and will definitely play the Saturday's game. Now, will he replace Roussouw? But with the form that Roussouw is currently in, it would not make sense, so in all probability Behardien would make way for Duminy. This would mean that apart from de Cock, all batsmen till number 7 are in form. I do not think that South Africa will be even thinking of replacing him. Even if he does not perform, he is a wicket-keeper and they can afford to have him with all other batsmen in good nick. But just imagine, if Saturday is his day and he too joins the party then, Pakistan will be in real trouble .
For now, when we compare the bowling department for the two teams, we can say that the two match each other. South Africa may marginally edge them just because of the consistency, but otherwise they are even. In bowling Pakistan would stick to Wahab Riaz, Sohail Khan, Rahat Ali, Mohammad Irfan and Shahid Afridi. They would go with additional seamer in Rahat Ali. South Africa will also stick to Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel and Imran Tahir. If Vernon Philander is fit then he will be back, else Kyle Abbott will continue. The fifth bowler duties will have to be shared by Duminy and du Plesis. If Behardien is in the team then he would also contribute.
In the batting department, South Africa definitely outweighs Pakistan hands down. If South Africa goes in suicidal mode, only then they can perform poorer than Pakistan. But after getting a wake up call against India, I do not think South African batsmen will do anything silly.
When it comes to fielding, South Africa is definitely a better squad. With their fielding itself, they can create a difference of 20-30 runs. So, if South Africa bats first then while defending the other team will have to assume the target is increased by 20 runs and if South Africa fields first then they would have easily reduced the target by 20 runs.
Now with all these factors let us also add another factor. Pakistan has never defeated South Africa in the three matches that they have played in the world cup.
So, the odds are against Pakistan. It is going to be a tough game for Pakistan. Finally, it is going to boil down to South Africa's batting against Pakistan's bowling. Whoever wins this battle may have the upper hand.
So, what is in Pakistan's favour on Saturday? As of now by all means, it looks to be the weather. Wet weather is forecast for Saturday afternoon, which would mean that either it is a truncated match or the match is abandoned. If the match is truncated, then the equations would change and hence it would be very difficult to predict who will have the upper hand. In case the match is abandoned, Pakistan would get 1 point and that would be very valuable for their journey in the competition, just like what happened in 1992.
Will God come to Pakistan's rescue? But even God helps only those who help themselves.
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